dunkside

As soon as their season is over (be it at the hands of the Celtics or in 5 games against the Cavs), the Magic should focus all of their efforts towards one goal: getting Jason Kidd. Right now they are not a real contender. They haven’t played like one after they lost Jameer Nelson. They got a decent replacement in Rafer Alston, but the difference is huge. Without Jameer (including the game in which he was injured) the Magic went 23-13 for a 63.8% winning percentage. With Jameer they were 36-10, winning 78.3% of their games. With Jameer they’d probably already be playing the Cavs in the ECF and giving them some trouble.

With Jameer coming back next season and Alston still being under contract it would seem a little weird to bring another PG  in Kidd. But Jameer is more of a shoot first PG. Kidd could play PG on offense (with Jameer as a SG) and SG on defense. He can’t guard small quick PG’s but he can still do a nice job on SG’s. The Magic had some trouble finding a starting SG. With Kidd and Jameer as starters and Alston, Courtney Lee and Pietrus on the bench they’d have a very strong back-court.

And here’s where Kidd could help the Magic:

One of the Magic’s biggest problems in these playoffs was controlling the tempo of the game. More than once they were up by 15-20 points by the 3rd quarter only to see that difference (and sometimes the game) slip through their fingers. Stan Van Gundy complained that even though he told them to push the ball, they walked it up the court and played at a tempo that suited their opponents better. Kidd could help in this aspect. He still is one of the best PG’s at pushing the tempo and getting people open shots.

Speaking of getting the ball to open teammates, there was a disturbingly common sight these playoffs: Dwight Howard open under the opponents’ basket waving his arms and jumping around like a madman while his teammates seemed to ingore him and failed to get him the ball. Kidd would make sure Dwight Howard gets the ball. In fact getting Kidd would at least double the number of alley oops Dwight got per game, and that’s scary. By keeping him involved in the offense, Kidd would help Dwight stay motivated on the defensive end for the entire game. Second DPOY award in a row for Dwight? You can book it.

Kidd will also bring leadership. He’s a veteran, and he’s a true leader. He’s been to the finals twice and he knows what you need to get there and what you need to win. He has tons of playoff experience, so when needed he will bring a calming influence. Even if Shaq was right and Stan Van Gundy is a master of panic, Kidd won’t let the Magic get startled.

Kidd knows he only has very few years left to compete for a title, so he will be very motivated and he will be on his best behavior (he has a little bit of a reputation of a coach killer). He will also be willing to take less money in order to compete for a title, and he’d probably want to have a big enough role on the team so he won’t feel like he’s riding another guy’s coattails, which would happen if he were to join the defending champion.

Financially, the Magic would have to pay the tax to bring Kidd. But they should, cause this would really improve their chances to get a title. They would probably have to pay it anyway to retain Hedo and Gortat. However, with the economy going down and him not having a season as good as his last, they won’t have to break the bank to keep Hedo. (Well, unless GM Otis Smith ends up bidding against himself like he did when he acquired Rashard Lewis.) Kidd will probably take the MLE (or even less) to join a contender. If the Magic can split the MLE between Kidd and Gortat that would be great. If Gortat gets an offer for the MLE from another team and the Magic match it, maybe they can work out a S&T for Kidd, perhaps involving Alston and his expiring 5 mil deal. Battie will have an expiring deal and the arrival of Kidd would make JJ Redick expendable if he wasn’t already. This is where Otis Smith has to earn his paycheck: improve the roster and without increasing the payroll by much; bring in Kidd without losing Gortat or Hedo and maybe turn Alston and Battie into some front-court help.

Player analysis, Team analysis Jason Kidd, Orlando Magic

This season’s injury bug

In one of the most injury prone seasons in recent history the list of players that really matter for their teams and will or might miss the remainder of the season is awfully long:
- Danny Granger
- Al Jefferson
- Amare Stoudamire
- Michael Redd
- Carlos Boozer
- Jameer Nelson
- Tracy McGrady
- Kevin Garnett
- Manu Ginobili
- Andrew Bynum
- Chris Kaman
- Elton Brand
- Andrew Bogut
not to mention Agent Zero, where zero stands for how many games he played this season.

The probable consequences of these injuries:
- better lottery chances for the Wolves, Clippers and Indiana
- no playoffs for the Bucks, Suns
- better seed for the Sixers
- absolutely no chances at the title for the Rockets, Jazz, Spurs (if Manu’s injury is serious) and Celtics (if Garnett’s injury is serious)
- much lower chances at the title for the Lakers – they played well even after losing Bynum, but without him in the finals they’ll be giving up size and interior defense again.

The Magic are in a different boat. They were hurt too and losing Jameer probably took them out of contention, but they reacted quickly by bringing Rafer Alston who seems to fit in their system. He’s a worse 3p shooter compared to Nelson (34.8% this season compared to 45.3% for Nelson) and he scores 5 less points per game, but he’s remarkably similar in all other statistical categories. And in his first game with the Magic he confirmed he’s not the shooter Nelson is (9 ast to 1 TO, but just 1-9 FG). The Magic got almost 3 months (1st round of the playoffs should be a breeze) to integrate Alston so you can’t count them out yet. The truth is that they’re kinda lucky Nelson’s injury didn’t happen after the deadline, in which case there was nothing they could do about it.

Team analysis injuries, Orlando Magic, Rafer Alston

Otis Smith, also known as the guy who gave Rashard fucking Lewis 20 million per season, was offered an extension by the Orlando Magic. According to ESPN:

 

It was a reward for building a team that won the franchise’s first division title in 12 years, and advanced in the playoffs for the first time since that last title.

 

I may be alone on this, but to me mortgaging the franchise’s future for a division title should’t be rewarded with an extension. The Magic have wasted their huge salary cap last summer yet they still miss a true power forward, a true point guard and a good shooting guard. That’s 3 positions out of 5. Worst of all, the guy they spent all that money on isn’t even the 2nd best player on the team, being outplayed by Hedo Turkoglu, who’s paid about 1/3 of the money Rashard makes.

 

Even worse, Otis Smith’s sole good decision during the summer, the hiring of Stan Van Gundy, was forced by Billy Donovan refusing the job, as Stan was not Otis’ first choice.

 

So be sure that in a few years when the Magic are way over the cap and stuck in mediocrity and when Dwight Howard will ask for a trade, I will be the first one to say “I told you so”.

General managers Orlando Magic, Otis Smith

Washington @ Cleveland

 

The only series in the East that features some bad blood between the 2 teams. With Arenas coming back from injury the Wizards sure feel confident, but Lebron will be on a mission. Add to that the fact that DeShawn Stevenson pissed him off with his comments, so he might just average 45 points and 15 rebounds by himself against the Wizards.

 

The Cavs, on the other hand, have nothing but Lebron. And that might not be enough. The more I look at that team and Danny Ferry’s track record, the more it seems Lebron will end-up requesting a trade or just signing with someone else when he becomes an UFA in 2010. And who can blame him ? He’s been carrying his team more than anyother superstar in the league. Kobe might complain about Kwame and Smush, but he had Phil Jackson and Odom. Lebron has Mike “what is that an offense ?” Brown and Ben “I used to be good, you know” Wallace.

 

Back to the WIzards-Cavs series, it may be the best and most memorable of Lebron’s career, but everything looks like it will end up bad for the Cavs. If I’m a GM in the NBA, I’m putting money aside for some tampering fines, cause I’d make absolutely sure that Lebron KNOWS that if he asks for a trade, I am willing to do anything to bring him in AND surround him with players and coaches that will help him win not one, but multiple titles. I am looking at you, John Paxson.

 

Oh, almost forgot about it: Wizards in 7.

 

 

Toronto @ Orlando

 

The backcourt has been Orlando’s major problem this season. And TJ Ford and Calderon could combine to give the Magic fits. But Dwight Howard will be too much for the Raptors to handle, even if Bosh is a difficult matchup for him. Superman has to prove he has made the leap to superstar by leading his team out of the 1st round. Magic in 6.

 

 

Philadelphia @ Detroit

 

Flip Saunders actually developed his bench this season. But he’ll still suck in the playoffs. And his players remain a bunch of whining bitches with a sense of entitlement, who’ll just choke in the playoffs. Too bad for the 76ers that they won’t choke in the 1st round. Well, at least Iguodala and Thaddeus Young will have the opportunity to see what the playoffs are all about and get some experience, which is what matters for them at this point. Detroit in 5.

 

 

Atlanta @ Boston

 

Hawks: please be gentle; PLEEEAAASE !!
Celtics: just be quiet; this won’t take long, anyway;
Celtics in 4.

Playoffs Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto Raptors, Washington Wizards

Well, not really. Let me start by saying that I have a man crush on Dwight Howard, and I love watching him play. Which means I kinda have to watch Rashard play as well. And each time I watch him play I wonder what part of his game made Otis Smith think believe that he was worth over 20 million per year. Since he’s a good scorer, but not a great scorer or a great passer/play maker, I suppose it’s his defense that must have impressed Otis Smith.

 

In fact, his elite defense is what got him on the next installment of Better Basketball’s “Better Defense” DVD. It’s a 3 part series talking about defense, blocking shots and rebounding (focusing on defensive rebounding). Here are the covers:

 

 

 

 

 

Ok, enough joking. All season long I’ve been hearing how poor Rashard (pun intended) is having such a hard time on D cause he’s a SF who has to guard PF. Can you PLEASE cut out the crap ? He’s 6′10. Most of the starting PF’s in the league are 6′10 or shorter*. Dude is tall and sufficiently athletic to be able to defend opposing PF’s. He should bulk up a little, but I suppose those damn weights are so heavy and you have to lift them so many times to gain some muscle that he just gave up. If he ever tried. I mean …. those contracts are guaranteed, baby. Guaranteed. That means you don’t need to pump iron to get the money. All you need to do is to be able to pick up a check.

 

And his lack of defense is hurting the Magic a lot. For example, against Toronto when Bosh scored 40 points on like 138% FG shooting, the Magic could have used a tall athletic defender to slow Bosh down. They had to try to use Howard on Bosh at times, but this was not a good thing, cause Bosh has the range to shoot long 2s and if Howard would have tried to close in and take his jump shot away, Bosh would use his quickness to go to the basket.

 

Rashard would have been the best option against Bosh had his defense been even passable. It’s not like Bosh was taller than him, or bigger. They both are 6′10 and weigh 230 lbs. Not like Bosh could have easily shot over Rashard or he could have pushed him under the basket. But defense is 90% about effort, and Rashard is just not willing to put in the effort.

 

So it’s a shame that this joker (Otis Smith) saddled the Magic with one of the most horrendous contracts in the league’s history. This absolutely killed their flexibility and now, when they need a true PG to get Howard the ball and a PF who can play D and rebound well, they don’t have the means to get them, except if they get lucky and find them with late-1st or 2nd round picks or if they manage to get them with the MLE. In the end Rashard’s contract may lead to Howard’s departure from Orlando, at which point Otis Smith better go hide in Antarctica, cause Magic fans may not take very well yet another disappointment after Shaq’s departure and Grant Hill’s failed 7 seasons with them.

 

* here’s the list: Boozer (6′9), Jamison (6′9), Reggie Evans (6′8), Chris Bosh (6′10), Gooden (6′10), Ben Wallace (6′7, listed at 6′9), Josh Smith (6′9), Shawn Marion (6′7), Kenyon Martin (6′9), Ryan Gomes (6′7), Chris Wilcox (6′10), Harrington (6′10), Amare (6′10), Scola (6′9)

Player analysis defense, Orlando Magic, Rashard Lewis

Magic @ Raptors

 

I know it’s a little late, but I kept reading how Bosh “destroyed” Dwight Howard and I had to see that myself to believe it. So here goes:

• Bosh did most of his damage against other Magic defenders. Well, maybe defenders isn’t the right word to describe them, they looked more like traffic cones dressed in Magic uniforms
• Bosh did score some buckets when defended by Howard. One of them was a nasty dunk after a pump fake and a baseline dribble. The rest were really long 2s, some contested. Bosh just made shots that most players usually wouldn’t.
• Bosh took advantage of his superior speed. Howard was reluctant to come too close fearing Bosh would beat him off the dribble, so Bosh had enough space to take jump shots.
• Bosh ot 40 points, 5 reb and 5 ast, but statistically Howard was arguably better with 37 points of his own and 15 reb.
• Orlando has absolutely no idea how to defend a pick and roll. They often looked as if it was the first time they ever saw a pick and roll. The Raptors, and especially Calderon, took advantage of it.
• Calderon is one evil mother fucker. As Denzel Washington said in Training Day, he’s surgical with that bitch. He shot 8-10 from the field (and he often had a hand in his face) and had 13 assists with just 1 TO. As I said, SUR-GI-CAL. Let me be the 1st one to say that he should be the most coveted FA this summer. Forget about
• Delfino can shoot the 3p shot if he’s left open. And with Bosh drawing double teams and opponents also having to worry about other good shooters (Calderon, Kapono), Delfino is getting his fair share of open looks. In fact, his percentage from the 3p line (41.1%) is better this season than his FG% (40.7). Turns out bringing him was another good move by Bryan Colangelo.
• Jameer Nelson was a defensive liability. He got abused on defense and seemed unable to stay in front of his man.
• In the end, the Magic had little to no chance of winning the game with Turkoglu and Lewis shooting a combined 10-30 FG (3-12 from 3p).

Game notes Carlos Delfino, Chris Bosh, Dwight Howard, Hedo Turkoglu, Jameer Nelson, Jose Calderon, Orlando Magic, Rashard Lewis, Toronto Raptors

Lakers @ Magic

• Game started like a practice for the 3p shooting contest. The Magic were shooting out of their mind. In the 2nd quarter they came back to earth and promptly started digging themselves in a hole.
• Dwight Howard is still not getting enough touches. For the season he only gets 1.6 more shots per game compared to last season. At times it seems his teammates avoid him. He does what he needs to do: gets the position deep in the post, seals his defender. Yet his teammates swing the pass to someone else or shoot a 3. Ultimately this goes to Stan Van Gundy. Stan, you gotta get Dwight more touches. You can’t have Hedo and Rashard shooting the ball more than Dwight.
• The refs messed the game up for the Magic. Dwight and Hedo were out with foul trouble and towards the end a few no-calls “helped” the Magic stay average at home.
• The Magic should really consider moving. Like TODAY. They are now 13-10 at home and 19-10 away. Or they may be better off if they avoid home court advantage during the playoffs. Especially since in they case it’s more like home court disadvantage.
• Pau Gasol is soft and fluffy and he surely graduated magna cum laude from the Manu Ginobili school of flopping

Cavaliers @ Hawks

• Eric Snow still can’t make a shot, even if that shot is a layup. He probably can’t make a layup even if you leave him alone in a gym for 1 hour. But he would play excellent D during that hour.
• Lebron should receive defensive first team considerations. Maybe even DPOY considerations. He became THAT good on defense.
• Joe Johnson must hate Al Horford. I don’t think I saw him passing the ball to Horford. Not even once. Not even when Horford was all alone under the Cavs’ basket. Yeah, Joe, keep trying to be the hero. Even if you are shooting 40% for the season, don’t bother passing the ball, just keep shooting. By the way, Joe finished 8-20 from the field, which is exactly 40%. At least he’s consistent.
• Lebron managed to get 7 assists despite the starting backcourt of the Cavs (Hughes and Snow) combining to shoot 5-20. Put shooters around him and he could average 10 assists per game.

Game notes LA Lakers, Orlando Magic