dunkside

Pat Riley is probably one of the most underestimated GM’s in the NBA. He promised to bring a title to Miami when he moved there. He did some mistakes at first (giving large contracts to Eddie Jones and Brian Grant, for example). He was hit by back luck when his star player and the heart and soul of the team, Zo, was diagnosed with focal glomerulosclerosis. But he learned from his mistakes and rebuild the team around Wade and finally delivered the title he promised.

When he realized his team was rapidly breaking down, that Shaq had lost all his motivation and that there was no chance to contend again, he broke the team and set to rebuild it. He even managed to find a fool (thank you, Steve Kerr) to take Shaq’s seemingly untradeable contract. And now the Heat seem to be in a great position again to make some moves that would take them back into the elite of the league.

If they get Odom for the MLE, that would be a steal, an even bigger one than getting Haslem for the MLE (one of the few MLE signings that actually worked well; for failed MLE’s see: James, Jerome and Jeffries, Jared).

And there are rumors about the Heat looking to get Boozer. Getting Boozer would be done in two ways, and they’d both put the Heat into position to grab one of the major FA of 2010. Since the 2 major FA’s are Lebron and Bosh, and the Heat would already have 2 really good PF’s in Odom and Boozer, the target would obviously be Lebron. And while everyone has their eyes on the Knicks or the Nets as probable targets for Lebron, he might end up playing with his friend, Wade, in Miami.

The 2 ways to get Boozer would be:

1. Include JO’s contract. That would give the Jazz 23 mil in expiring salary, but they’d want the Heat to either send them some talent back, or take a bad salary off their hands (and their payroll). Does Kirilenko’s nearly 18 mil for 2010-2011 sound bad enough ?

JO + Haslem for Boozer + Kirilenko works under the rules and makes sense, too. The Jazz get rid of a huge salary and get a huge expiring + a good role player PF to back-up Millsap. The Heat get Boozer and a contract that becomes an 18 mil expiring in 2010, when they could package it in a S&T for a FA (where FA = Lebron).

2. Not include JO’s contract. That can be done if the Heat send Haslem + Blount or Blount + Wright for Boozer. The Jazz could use Haslem and Blount would be just an expiring. The Heat might send a pick and/or some cash, too. This would mean the Heat would still have JO’s expiring to offer around the trade deadline. And if by that time Lebron decides he wants to play with the Heat, he might tell the Cavs to trade them there, and they’d have to do it or risk losing him for nothing in the summer. JO + Beasley (again, with some picks and/or cash) works for Lebron + Z or, even better for the Cavs, for Lebron + Varejao + Gibson.

Actually these 2 scenarios can work with or without Odom, and in some cases having him would create a glut at PF, but having a trio of Wade, Odom and Boozer would surely make the Heat much more appealing to Lebron. And a team with Wade, Lebron, Odom, Boozer would be an instant contender and a possible dynasty.

With or without Lebron, Riley seems to be on his way to building a new team around Wade, and doing it with solid picks and trying to get talented players without breaking the bank and putting his team in salary cap hell, while also retaining flexibility so he can make a move for a superstar if the possibility arises. With Riles continuing to make such moves Miami will probably be back in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2-3 years, if not even in the Finals.

Team analysis Carlos Boozer, Dwyane Wade, Lamar Odom, Lebron James, Miami Heat, Pat Riley

Nuggets @ Lakers

• For this game, at least, the old Kobe was back. He scored 32 points, but he did it on 9-26 FG (34%) and only had 1 assist. The Lakers can probably survive him playing like this (selfish, that is) against the Nuggets, but if he keeps doing it in the 2nd round, that Celtics – Lakers final might have to wait another year or two.
• Remember when people questioned whether Gasol can win playoff games ? Apparently he can if he has the right players around him. Kobe wasn’t really impressive in this game, so it was the Gasol show. He was close to a triple double and finished with 36 points on 14-20 FG, 16 reb and 8 ast. Also had 3 blk. It has to be said that Gasol is an opportunistic player, who needs someone to create for him, but he’s great at running the floor and exploiting any oppening in the opposing defense.
• Melo and Iverson scored 30 points each on a combined 22-50. But the one who changed the momentum in the 2nd quarter and brought the Nuggets back when they were 10+ points down was JR Smith. He couldn’t do it again in the 4th quarter though
• Kleiza had a really good and efficient game with 23 points on 9-13 FG, but that was not enough to offset the horrible shooting of the other role players of the Nuggets: Camby 2-9, KneeMart 1-7, Najera 1-5.
• Odom continued to excel in his glue-guy that does a little bit of everything role with 17 points, 14 rebounds and 6 assists.
• The game was closer than the score shows, or at least it seemed that way cause at the breakneck pace the Nuggets play, the 10-15 points advantage the Lakers had all game long could go up in smoke in about 2 minutes. And this could have happened easily had the Nuggets caught a few lucky breaks. But they didn’t and they fell apart at the end with Iverson getting ejected. I expected the series to be 4 blow-outs in a row, but even though the Nuggets were slightly better than I expected, it still doesn’t look like they have a chance (other than extending the series to 5 or – highly unlikely – 6 games), especially if Kobe gets his shit together and reverts to playing the way he did during the regular season.

Game notes Allen Iverson, Carmelo Anthony, Denver Nuggets, Kobe Bryant, LA Lakers, Lamar Odom, Linas Kleiza, Pau Gasol

Spurs @ Lakers

• Pau Gasol is really really soft. And he’s underrated as a flopper. Too bad Manu is not playing, cause they might have settled the “who’s the biggest flopper in the league” dispute once and for all
• The Spurs are looking good on offense so far. Their shots are falling and they look a little bit like the old Spurs
• Turiaf has developed a nice mid range J, but he better not start falling in love with it, cause his bread and butter is his defense and rebounding under the boards
• He may be soft but he’s running the floor well. Gasol fits well in the Lakers offense as an opportunistic scorer. He fills well the open spaces and gets a lot of easy points when Kobe or Odom are double-teamed.
• Vujacic has a lot more balls than Odom. Each time he’s open, Odom hesitates till a defender comes and covers him. He feels much more comfortable passing the ball. Vujacic on the other hand has no conscience whatsoever. He’s shooting as if he had a guaranteed contract or something, and couldn’t be fired if he missed a shot or 10. Actually pretty much everyone on the Lakers except for Odom is beaming with confidence, and Vujacic and Farmar deserve a special mention for not being afraid of taking (and making) big shots.
• Derek Fisher put on a little show by himself with his best impersonation of Steve Kerr, punishing the Spurs each time he was left open. He finished with 14 points on 6-9 shooting in just 24 minutes.
• Lamar Odom seems to have found his niche with the Lakers: leading rebounder. As long as he’s not asked to be the 2nd option on offense, he can focus on rebounds and distributing the ball. He had the best +/- on the Lakers in 4 of the Lakers last 5 wins, and I doubt this is a coincidence.
• The Spurs missed Manu badly on offense, especially after half-time, when the Lakers D tightened up. The Spurs defense was also uncharacteristically porous at times, allowing lots of layups and dunks, but, as mentioned in my previous post, this probably has a lot more to do with age than with Ginobili missing the game.
• The Lakers owned the boards (51 to 36) and got 12 offensive rebounds. But during the game it seemed they got about 100 or so offensive rebounds
• The new Kobe vs the old Kobe: at one point Kobe missed an open shot and the Lakers got the offensive rebound and the ball got back to Kobe who had a hand in his face this time. The old Kobe would have taken that shot (and probably missed it). The new Kobe swung the ball to an open team-mate. The new Kobe took tough shots only when the shot clock was ticking down (and this game he made them all), and was content to let his team-mates share the glory. This is why the MVP voters will probably feel much more comfortable giving him the award this year (my personal choice would be Chris Paul, but Kobe will probably win in a landslide).

Game notes Kobe Bryant, LA Lakers, Lamar Odom, Manu Ginobili, Pau Gasol, Ronnie Turiaf, San Antonio Spurs, Sasha Vujacic

 

Not too long after running diesel off out of diesel, Kobe realized pushing the Laker’s ship by himself to the top of the mountain was a little too difficult and started whining about how he wanted to be traded. Now he gets Gasol for his ship at an outrageous price: about 2 cents for the dollar. This should make him really really happy. Maybe now he will even officially back-off his trade demand.

 

The Lakers sent Kwame’s contract (I don’t really thing the Grizzlies care about his person or his game) and a couple of what figure out to be really late 1st round picks as the main parts of the package for Gasol. The outrageously low price the Lakers paid for Gasol rivals the highway robbery the Nets pulled on the Raptors in the Vince Carter trade. However, there’s a distinct possibility that Gasol might actually care about the game. Also, the Lakers are more likely to get better returns than the Nets got out of the Carter trade.

 

The question is “Are the Lakers title contenders ?”. The answers you’ll see in most places range from “Yeah” to “Hell, yeah”. After all the Lakers were pretty good without Gasol till Bynum got injured. They had the 1st place in the West and even now are just 3 games behind Phoenix who has the best record in the West. Gasol is a damn good player, even if this year is not his best. He put up a 20-10 (well, 9.8 to be exact) season in 2006-07. He lead a weak Grizzlies team to the playoffs 3 times in the powerful Western Conference. But can they make a run this year ?

 

During the past few years, the Lakers had a history of starting strong and then fading towards the end of the season. This might have been a valid concern this season too especially after the Bynum injury. With Gasol this is no longer a concern. What the Lakers will worry about now is getting a higher seed. With the West extremely volatile this season, they could end up with any seed between 1 and 6. Dallas is still considering a trade for Kidd, and any of Portland, Houston, Denver or Golden State (all currently behind the Lakers) could get hot and roll 10 or more wins in a row.

 

Before thinking about a title, there are always a few things to consider. The Lakers will need some time to gel. And Bynum will still be out about a month, so they won’t have much time left before the playoffs start. One thing that people seem to forget is that the Lakers use the offensive triangle, which usually takes a long time to learn. Gasol may need an entire season including training camp to feel comfortable within the triangle. Despite what most people think I doubt the Lakers will be able to win the title or even make the finals this season. Next season it might be a different story. But not this season. But they will be a tough match-up in the playoffs and might make the Western Conference Finals.

 

The Lakers may not be done dealing though. In case they want to make another move, the odd man out would seem to be Lamar Odom. He never was a really good fit next to Kobe. Kobe likes to dominate the ball, and Odom needs the ball in his hands to be effective. They are different in the way that Kobe is a selfish gunner (though this season he seemed to have finally got it), while Odom is unselfish and likes to create for others. But they both need the ball. With Kobe, Gasol and Bynum (when he comes back from injury), the Lakers may be better off having a SF that can defend and hit the open 3. Like Bowen used to do for the Spurs (”used to do” cause this season his shooting sucks).

 

But whatever the Lakers do this season is less important. Except if they miss the playoffs, this season will be a success. What’s left of the season is in fact an early training camp for Gasol. The real (and realistic) expectations are for next season. Kobe will still be in his prime, same with Gasol, Bynum will have a little more experience and during the summer they may become a magnet for veteran free agents looking for a title. With the best coach of all time, with Kobe, Gasol, Bynum and Odom (if he’s still with the Lakers), with an roster improved over the summer, nothing less than the finals would be acceptable for the Lakers in 2008-2009.

 

From the Grizzlies perspective, this trade was horrible. Trading Gasol for a steaming pile of fresh crap, which may or may not have a thank you note on top, is not a good idea. Chris Wallace (Grizzlies’ GM) dropped his pants and let Mitch Kupchak slowly rape him from behind. Now Mitch is finally vindicated after the Caron Butler for Kwame Brown mega-blunder. And Chris Wallace just added to his “legacy” of retarded decisions that he built as the GM of the Celtics. Speaking of which, how about this for an irony: if the Lakers beat the Celtics in the NBA finals this season or in the next 2-3 seasons, it means Chris Wallace managed to deal one more blow to his former team in the only form he knows how – by making a bad trade. This time though his incompetence would reach new heights, since he would have managed to make a bad trade that hurt the Celtics even when he wasn’t working for them anymore.

 

For the Grizzlies this means entering tanking mode, especially since they have recently added another expiring in trading Stromile Swift for Jason Collins. It also means that if they sign Michael Olowokandi, they could play a bustlicious line-up of Olowokandi, Kwame Brown and Darko. That would be professional grade tanking, and if that wouldn’t give them the worst record in the NBA, nothing will.

 

For me there is one more perspective to talk about: the Bulls fan perspective. There have been countless speculations and rumors about a trade for Gasol. Paxson was supposedly trying to get Gasol for more than 1 year. Last season the fans were lead to believe that Jerry West did not want to make the trade unless he received Deng, Gordon AND Tyrus Thomas or the pick that became Joakim Noah. Now when he was traded for a pile of crap, it’s obvious that the Bulls (like almost everyone else in the NBA) could have offered more. Of course you can find John Paxson an excuse if that’s what you want to. He did not have the expiring the Grizzlies were looking for, when he did (last season), the Grizzlies were asking for too much etc. But in the end, it’s his job to put himself in the position to make such a trade. And if he was really trying to get Gasol, he should have known what the Grizzlies were looking for (expirings, poor picks, crap) and he should have worked in order to acquire them.

Trades Andrew Bynum, Chris Wallace, John Paxson, Kobe Bryant, LA Lakers, Lamar Odom, Memphis Grizzlies, Pau Gasol, Phil Jackson