dunkside

Pat Riley is probably one of the most underestimated GM’s in the NBA. He promised to bring a title to Miami when he moved there. He did some mistakes at first (giving large contracts to Eddie Jones and Brian Grant, for example). He was hit by back luck when his star player and the heart and soul of the team, Zo, was diagnosed with focal glomerulosclerosis. But he learned from his mistakes and rebuild the team around Wade and finally delivered the title he promised.

When he realized his team was rapidly breaking down, that Shaq had lost all his motivation and that there was no chance to contend again, he broke the team and set to rebuild it. He even managed to find a fool (thank you, Steve Kerr) to take Shaq’s seemingly untradeable contract. And now the Heat seem to be in a great position again to make some moves that would take them back into the elite of the league.

If they get Odom for the MLE, that would be a steal, an even bigger one than getting Haslem for the MLE (one of the few MLE signings that actually worked well; for failed MLE’s see: James, Jerome and Jeffries, Jared).

And there are rumors about the Heat looking to get Boozer. Getting Boozer would be done in two ways, and they’d both put the Heat into position to grab one of the major FA of 2010. Since the 2 major FA’s are Lebron and Bosh, and the Heat would already have 2 really good PF’s in Odom and Boozer, the target would obviously be Lebron. And while everyone has their eyes on the Knicks or the Nets as probable targets for Lebron, he might end up playing with his friend, Wade, in Miami.

The 2 ways to get Boozer would be:

1. Include JO’s contract. That would give the Jazz 23 mil in expiring salary, but they’d want the Heat to either send them some talent back, or take a bad salary off their hands (and their payroll). Does Kirilenko’s nearly 18 mil for 2010-2011 sound bad enough ?

JO + Haslem for Boozer + Kirilenko works under the rules and makes sense, too. The Jazz get rid of a huge salary and get a huge expiring + a good role player PF to back-up Millsap. The Heat get Boozer and a contract that becomes an 18 mil expiring in 2010, when they could package it in a S&T for a FA (where FA = Lebron).

2. Not include JO’s contract. That can be done if the Heat send Haslem + Blount or Blount + Wright for Boozer. The Jazz could use Haslem and Blount would be just an expiring. The Heat might send a pick and/or some cash, too. This would mean the Heat would still have JO’s expiring to offer around the trade deadline. And if by that time Lebron decides he wants to play with the Heat, he might tell the Cavs to trade them there, and they’d have to do it or risk losing him for nothing in the summer. JO + Beasley (again, with some picks and/or cash) works for Lebron + Z or, even better for the Cavs, for Lebron + Varejao + Gibson.

Actually these 2 scenarios can work with or without Odom, and in some cases having him would create a glut at PF, but having a trio of Wade, Odom and Boozer would surely make the Heat much more appealing to Lebron. And a team with Wade, Lebron, Odom, Boozer would be an instant contender and a possible dynasty.

With or without Lebron, Riley seems to be on his way to building a new team around Wade, and doing it with solid picks and trying to get talented players without breaking the bank and putting his team in salary cap hell, while also retaining flexibility so he can make a move for a superstar if the possibility arises. With Riles continuing to make such moves Miami will probably be back in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2-3 years, if not even in the Finals.

Team analysis Carlos Boozer, Dwyane Wade, Lamar Odom, Lebron James, Miami Heat, Pat Riley

MVP

Lebron. Book it.

Lebron played well enough to win in both in 2006 and 2008, but he had a horrible team, kinda like Wade has now. Now that Cleveland is ahead of the Lakers in the standings and things will probably stay that way till the end of the season, there’s no more excuse not to vote for Lebron. Just like last season the game between the Lakers and the Hornets that decided the final standings might have been decisive in the MVP voting. Last season Kobe got it as some sort of career achievement award and possibly because of the voters’ feelings of guilt. I don’t think many of them really liked him, so that time they voted just to prove they are not biased against him: “we’ll give him one now, so then we can never vote for him again without feeling guilty about it”. Since Kobe then sort of fizzled in the finals, I doubt he’s gonna win another MVP award until he leads his team to a title.

I expect Lebron to win it overwhelmingly, and Wade to be a distant second. Wade will get the most second place votes, but less first place votes than Kobe. The top 5 would be: Lebron, Wade, Kobe, Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan.

DPOY

Dwight Howard. It should be a landslide, maybe even more so than the MVP vote. Lebron and Wade should get some 2nd and 3rd place votes.

ROY

Rose. Might have been closer had the Bulls not made the playoffs (they can still miss them, but the way they played lately and their schedule suggest they will get in).

Sixth Man of the Year

Allen Iverson.

Ok, Ok, I’m just kidding. I’d go with Flip Murray, but I don’t know if he got talked about enough in the media for the voters to recognize him. Nate Robinson on the other hand won the Dunk Contest and plays in NY so he gets enough coverage. Plus playing in D’Antoni’s system helped him put up some nice numbers which can only help his cause. Murray might be more deserving for being an important part off the bench for the 4th best team in the East, but Nate will win it.

Most improved player

Paul Millsap will probably win it. He helped the Jazz stay afloat while Boozer was out. Had the Nets made the playoffs Harris would have won the award, but they faded of late. Jameer Nelson would have been a good candidate had he not been injured.

COY

Stan van Gundy. Mike Brown might have a chance, but the decisive factor should be the way Orlando’s defense (and overall play) improved despite playing a soft SF at PF and having just average to poor defenders around Howard.

Executive of the year

I expect the COY and Executive of the Year will go one to Cleveland and the other to Orlando, so if Stan gets the COY then Ferry should get this award. Mike Brown gets less credit because he got a good team (put together by the Executive of the Year) and he has the best player in the world on his team.

First All NBA Team and First All Defensive Team

I don’t think this ever happened before, but this could be the 1st time when these 2 teams are identical. The 1st All NBA Team should have Wade and Kobe at G, Lebron and Duncan at F and Dwight Howard at C. Kobe is a permanent fixture on the D teams, Dwight couldn’t miss it as the DPOY and Duncan should be in by default as Garnett missed a bunch of games and the Celtics played beyong expectations – the expectations they built themselves with that torrid start of the season. Considering the effort put forth by both Wade and Lebron on the defensive end (Wade has more blk/game than a whole bunch of 7 footers and Lebron’s come from behind blocks are even more spectacular than his thunderous dunks) they deserve to be recognized.

Bowen is now too old now and played too little to have a chance at the 1st team. Battier or Artest might still ruin it by taking the place of Wade or Lebron, but the fact that they now play on the same team could work against them and make them split the votes.

Awards Derrick Rose, Dwight Howard, Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant, Lebron James, Nate Robinson, Paul Millsap, Stan van Gundy

Cavs @ Heat

• Not much to say about Wade vs Lebron. It was everything fans were expecting. There was scoring, there was dunking, there were blocks, 3 pointers and then some more dunking. It’s the second time Wade and Lebron put up 40 points each when playing against each other. It only makes you wonder if they can top it when they meet again this Saturday.

• Jamario Moon started again and played well. Can’t really blame him for not being able to do much against Lebron. When he plays like he did, especially when he’s hitting from long range (6-7 on 3 pointers), no one can stop the “new and improved Ron Artest” (I just can’t get enough of Ron Ron’s lunacy). Moon seems to have won the starting SF spot and neither James Jones nor Diawara look like they have a shot of taking it from him.

• Despite being down 11 points with less than 8 minutes remaining and the Heat seemingly rolling, the Cavs didn’t get fazed. They had a certain poise, showed maturity and got the job done. That’s the kind of attitude that could make the difference between winning and losing a playoff series.

• The Cavs are far from being at 100%. Ben Wallace is out with a broken foot (and he played much better for the Cavs than he ever did for the Bulls), Delonte West still has some problems with his injured wrist, Pavlovic just came back from injury. This thought should scare the crap out of the Celtics and Lakers, cause the Cavs just got Joe Smith to help with their depth in the front-court, and if they get everyone healthy they look to me like the favorites for the title.

• Moon and JO look like they have developed pretty good chemistry with Wade. The Heat don’t have enough weapons to compete with the big boys of the East, but they certainly can get to the 2nd round of the playoffs and throw a scare into the team they meet there.

• At the end of the game when the Cavs came storming back from 11 down by forcing the ball out of Wade’s hands, the Heat could have used the 3p shooting of one Cook, Daequan. It would have taken the pressure off Wade and helped to actually put some points on the board. However he has been reported missing since the All Star Weekend and has apparently been replaced with a version of Adam Morrison. Like, the new and improved Adam Morrison or something.

Game notes Cleveland Cavaliers, Daequan Cook, Dwyane Wade, Jamario Moon, Lebron James, Miami Heat

Nuggets @ Heat

• Shawn Marion is anything but affected by not playing with Steve Nash. His stats were good before Nash arrived in Phoenix, so they will be good (if not better) now with the Heat. Wade has been throwing him a lot of alley oop passes
• Miami’s defense is really poor. If they could get defensive big man they’d improve by leaps and bounds. Someone like a younger Zo or Mutombo would fit them well. Blount and Barron, Miami’s two 7-footers, combine for 0.3 blocked shots per game. Yeah, you read that right: 0.3. That is beyond pathetic. That is Jason Collins-esque.
• JR Smith was 8-14 from the 3p line. Shouldn’t John Paxson slap himself silly each time Duhon misses an open shot, thinking he gave this guy away ?
• the Nuggets’ length seemed to bother the Heat. Besides having 2 stiffs at C, Miami was also missing its 3rd best player, Udonis Haslem. The Nuggets had only a minor rebounding advantage (49 to 46), but there were lots of rebounds that should have been Miami’s that were tipped, usually by Camby, and ended up in the Nuggets’ hands. Despite being 6′7 tall, Ricky Davis only managed to grab one rebound in almost 32 minutes.
• speaking of rebounds, Marion pulled down 18 rebounds. With 32 rebounds in his 2 games for Miami so far, looks like there were a lot of rebounds up for grabs in Miami. How the hell did Shaq only average about 7 per game, is a mystery worthy of Sherlock Holmes. Well, maybe of Scooby Doo, rather then Sherlock Holmes. I mean, it’s pretty obvious that you can’t grab too many rebounds when you just stand and wait for the ball to come to you.
• Dorell Wright is a pretty good role player for the Heat. But more on him a little bit later
• Wade’s jumper is improved. I know everybody thinks he’s still the slasher with no jump shot, but they are wrong. He’s clearly better from the left side, especially just inside the 3p line (see below). And I think him shooting obviously worse from the right side compared to the left has something to do with his right knee now being anywhere close to 100%.

• Wade also seems to have improved his 3p shot. I know his 24.5% from behind the arc says different, but in the games I’ve seen him this year, he converted most of his 3p shots. He was 3-7 for this game and teams really can’t afford to leave him open behind the 3p line.
• Kenyon Martin is playing good basketball. Really didn’t expect that. Not after a microfracture surgery on each knee. He took advantage of Miami’s soft interior defense (if you can call that defense) and went for 24 points on 12-16 FG. After 2 really poor seasons (the last one he only played 2 games), he might be on the trail of a comeback. I’m not yet sold on him, but if he keeps playing like this for a couple more weeks, who knows ? He might become tradeable.
• Kleiza can throw down some nice dunks. He doesn’t seem to be a leaper, but he somehow manages to dunk the ball from impossible angles
• a few weeks ago, playing without Melo who was injured, Iverson said he felt like back in Phila, as he was the only offensive weapon and was continuously double and triple teamed. He made it sound like he didn’t like it, but against Miami Iverson didn’t mind turning back the clock again. And he did it by shooting 5-20 on FG, despite pretty much everyone else from the Nuggets shooting close to or above 50%. The rest of the team combined to shot 53.3%. With his 5-20 the team’s FG percentage was 47.4%.

Game notes Allen Iverson, Denver Nuggets, Dorell Wright, Dwyane Wade, Kenyon Martin, Miami Heat, Shawn Marion

Despite not being fully recovered from knee and shoulder surgeries, Wade has been playing out of his mind in an attempt to stop Riley from taking another in-season vacation the Heat from setting a new franchise record for consecutive losses. Of course, it didn’t hurt that the Heat were playing Indiana who was missing Jermaine O’Neal. Wade was all over the floor, shooting 3s, taking the ball to the hoop, making all kinds of shots against the Pacers defense. Truth be told, the same “defense” allowed Kirk Hinrich (who sucked so much this year he’s been getting offers to star in gay porn movies) to match his career high.

 

Wade finished with 35 points (12-20 FG, 2-5 from the 3p line), 8 reb, 4 ast, 1 stl, 1 blk and 3 TO. He was helped by Haslem (12 p on 6-11, 9 reb) and Dorell Wright (14 p on 7-11, 10 reb). Not helping much were Jason Williams (4 points on 2-9 in 36 minutes) and Ricky Davis (2 points on 1-7 in 27 minutes). At least Williams contributed 8 ast and 6 stl with just 1 TO. Ricky only contributed with some bad defense.

What is surprising is that Miami has been sucking so bad recently despite excellent play from Wade. He isn’t anywhere near 100% (and in fact Riley should sit him till he’s recovered and “fight” for a higher pick in the draft) and you can see that especially on D where he’s not as active. He’s also a step slow on offense too, but his talent enables him to still be able to score at a high rate. So if Wade is playing great even if injured, why is Miami so bad ?

 

Well, even if Wade has been spectacular on the offensive end, he had little help. Jason Williams is only making 38.3% of his FGA (and that isn’t even his worst season shooting percentage-wise). Williams manages to have a career worst in points scored at 9.1 per game. And that is despite playing over 31 minutes per game and Miami not having too many scorers on the team. And what would be a “who sucks” list without Ricky Davis ? It would be an incomplete list, that’s what it would be. Ricky is shooting only 43.4% from the floor, but that doesn’t seem to bother him or maybe make him pass the ball more often. He actually averages 2 assists LESS than he did last season. After all, he has a shooter’s mentality. Too bad he’s not really a shooter. With such contributors, no wonder the Heat are 3rd last in the league in point differential and last in points scored per game.

 

Unfortunately for them, is not only the offense that sucks. The defense is just as bad. There are very few teams that allow more points per 100 possessions than the Heat: Warriors (tied at 109), Grizzlies, Bucks, Wolves, Knicks and Kings (tied). The rebounding is also bad, as Miami is 5th worse in the league in rebounding differential and dead last in rebounds per game. The problems with defense and rebounding can be partially explained by the injury to Zo and Shaq taking his annual 30 games break. That left Mark Blount as the starting C, and he responded by not letting his height (7 feet) stand in his way to averaging 2.8 rebounds in almost 17 minutes per game. I think that statistically there are more chances of one person getting hit by lightning AND a meteor at the same time then Blount getting a rebound.

 

Looking at the bunch of misfits Riley has assembled you almost understand Shaq’s lack of interest in playing during the regular season. After all, he’s saving himself for the playoffs.

Player analysis, Team analysis Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat