dunkside

Ever since the Heat signed him for the MLE I loved Udonis Haslem’s game. For me he is the prototypical role player. Adequate salary, tough, determined, energetic, hard working, a good addition to a lockerroom – and he brings it every night. He was a big reason why the Heat won the title in 2006, doing an excellent job defending Dirk despite an injured shoulder. At 6′7 he already was undersized playing PF, but this season he even played C for about half a season, did a decent job and never complained.

This season while watching the Cavaliers dominate the league, Anderson Varejao kept reminding me of Udonis Haslem. They are both PF role players on MLE contracts, they both defend well despite not being very athletic. They both take more charges than they block shots, and usually make smart decisions. They also seem to have a special connection with their superstars. Haslem is a co-captain of the Heat, the only other Heat player except for Wade that was part of their 2006 title team. In these playoffs him and Wade were the veteran voices in a lockerroom filled with rookies and young players. In a way he’s a mini-Zo and embodies the qualities Riley looks for in his players.

Varejao also seems to have a special connection with Lebron (as illustrated by the image above).  I remember when Drew Gooden used to be the starting PF for the Cavs you could often see he was a nuisance for Lebron. He had some game offensively, but he’d often make dumb mistakes that would drive the coaches and Lebron nuts. Once, after a time-out in which both Mike Brown and Lebron told him about 10 times NOT to jump when his man pump fakes, as soon as the ball goes to his man and he pump fakes, Gooden is flying through the air like a damn moron. You could hear the sound of  Mike Brown and Lebron slapping their foreheads from miles away. The dynamics between Lebron and Varejao are completely different. You can see they work in perfect sync. For example they have a pet play where Lebron is on the left side of the court at the 3 point line and Varejao cuts from the right corner on the baseline. Lebron makes a bullet pass under the basket for a reverse layup by Varejao. You can sometimes see that play 3-4 times in a game if the defense keeps falling asleep on Varejao.

Oh, I love you, Lebron. I want to have your babies.

There are some differences, of course. First, Varejao is about 4 inches taller, but Haslem looks to be a little stronger. Varejao is a slightly better offensive rebounder – and in these playoffs his offensive rebounding was off the charts. He had twice as many offensive rebounds per game than he had during the regular season.  Offensively, unlike Haslem who can hit the mid range J with consistency, Varejao is strictly a garbage points man. He can’t create his own shot and can’t hit a J regularly, but he moves extremely well without the ball so he gets his points on hard cuts to the basket (Lebron finds him every time he’s open), or on put-backs.

Overall their contributions are very similar, as are their stats. They are the kind of role players that you can find on a title team, those whose contributions go beyond what you see in the boxscore. They bring the intangibles, they do the little things and they help their teams win. And this season we could add another similarity between the 2, as Anderson Varejao might get a championship ring too.

Player analysis Anderson Varejao, Cleveland Cavaliers, Udonis Haslem

As soon as their season is over (be it at the hands of the Celtics or in 5 games against the Cavs), the Magic should focus all of their efforts towards one goal: getting Jason Kidd. Right now they are not a real contender. They haven’t played like one after they lost Jameer Nelson. They got a decent replacement in Rafer Alston, but the difference is huge. Without Jameer (including the game in which he was injured) the Magic went 23-13 for a 63.8% winning percentage. With Jameer they were 36-10, winning 78.3% of their games. With Jameer they’d probably already be playing the Cavs in the ECF and giving them some trouble.

Follow me! I know the road to the Finals.

With Jameer coming back next season and Alston still being under contract it would seem a little weird to bring another PG  in Kidd. But Jameer is more of a shoot first PG. Kidd could play PG on offense (with Jameer as a SG) and SG on defense. He can’t guard small quick PG’s but he can still do a nice job on SG’s. The Magic had some trouble finding a starting SG. With Kidd and Jameer as starters and Alston, Courtney Lee and Pietrus on the bench they’d have a very strong back-court.

And here’s where Kidd could help the Magic:

One of the Magic’s biggest problems in these playoffs was controlling the tempo of the game. More than once they were up by 15-20 points by the 3rd quarter only to see that difference (and sometimes the game) slip through their fingers. Stan Van Gundy complained that even though he told them to push the ball, they walked it up the court and played at a tempo that suited their opponents better. Kidd could help in this aspect. He still is one of the best PG’s at pushing the tempo and getting people open shots.

Speaking of getting the ball to open teammates, there was a disturbingly common sight these playoffs: Dwight Howard open under the opponents’ basket waving his arms and jumping around like a madman while his teammates seemed to ingore him and failed to get him the ball. Kidd would make sure Dwight Howard gets the ball. In fact getting Kidd would at least double the number of alley oops Dwight got per game, and that’s scary. By keeping him involved in the offense, Kidd would help Dwight stay motivated on the defensive end for the entire game. Second DPOY award in a row for Dwight? You can book it.

Kidd will also bring leadership. He’s a veteran, and he’s a true leader. He’s been to the finals twice and he knows what you need to get there and what you need to win. He has tons of playoff experience, so when needed he will bring a calming influence. Even if Shaq was right and Stan Van Gundy is a master of panic, Kidd won’t let the Magic get startled.

Kidd knows he only has very few years left to compete for a title, so he will be very motivated and he will be on his best behavior (he has a little bit of a reputation of a coach killer). He will also be willing to take less money in order to compete for a title, and he’d probably want to have a big enough role on the team so he won’t feel like he’s riding another guy’s coattails, which would happen if he were to join the defending champion.

Financially, the Magic would have to pay the tax to bring Kidd. But they should, cause this would really improve their chances to get a title. They would probably have to pay it anyway to retain Hedo and Gortat. However, with the economy going down and him not having a season as good as his last, they won’t have to break the bank to keep Hedo. (Well, unless GM Otis Smith ends up bidding against himself like he did when he acquired Rashard Lewis.) Kidd will probably take the MLE (or even less) to join a contender. If the Magic can split the MLE between Kidd and Gortat that would be great. If Gortat gets an offer for the MLE from another team and the Magic match it, maybe they can work out a S&T for Kidd, perhaps involving Alston and his expiring 5 mil deal. Battie will have an expiring deal and the arrival of Kidd would make JJ Redick expendable if he wasn’t already. This is where Otis Smith has to earn his paycheck: improve the roster and without increasing the payroll by much; bring in Kidd without losing Gortat or Hedo and maybe turn Alston and Battie into some front-court help.

Player analysis, Team analysis Jason Kidd, Orlando Magic

For years Hinrich made me mad with his stupid decisions: off the dribble 3p shots on the fast break when he has 2 open team-mates streaking to the basket, quick bad shots with more than 15 seconds left on the clock, hesitating on penetration and taking the ball back at the 3p line instead of trying to finish strong at the rim and, of course, overdribbling. He did all these things 3 seasons ago and he still does them.

This is why Larry Brown would be the perfect coach for Hinrich. Larry Brown is known for getting the most out of his point guards, and the points that he harps on are the things that Hinrich needs to work on: only take good shots, move the ball, make the extra pass.

And this even has a chance to happen. Hinrich is paid way too much for the Bulls to keep him as a back-up guard (although with John Paxson as GM you never know) and the Bobcats were said to be looking to move Raymond Felton before DJ Augustine got injured. I doubt the Bulls have much interest in Felton, and even if they did, the salaries don’t match so other players would have to be involved. But if a 3rd team got involved Hinrich could end up playing for Larry Brown, which would most likely be the best thing that could happen for him as a basketball player.

Player analysis Kirk Hinrich, Larry Brown

I’ve been on Tyrus’ bandwagon since he joined the Bulls, I complained about Skiles not giving him enough minutes and slowing down his development, I defended him when he was compared to LaMarcus Aldridge and called a bust. Now that he’s starting to show what he can do, what I always knew he could do, it’s time to talk about him some more.

During his short career Tyrus has been acused of a lot of things. Little by little he proved the critics wrong. With increased playing time came increased production, a lower fouling rate, more consistency, better FT%. But now the thing I hear the most is:

Tyrus should stop shooting jumpshots

To which I say: bullshit. When Tyrus came in the league he didn’t have any offensive game other than the dunk. He was way too light as a PF to back down his opponents and get dunks and layups out of it. His defenders sagged off him to cut his penetration giving him a jumpshot every time, knowing he couldn’t make them.

Last offseason Tyrus stated he’d work on his jumpshot and you can actually see the results. The form of the jumpshot is good, and he improved his FT%. Since having a rough start of the season (2-22 FG combined in the 2nd and 3rd games), little by little Tyrus improved his game, especially his offense. He might have an occasional bad shooting night but is not because he’s taking bad shots. It’s just that his shots are not falling, and this happens sometimes. It looks like it’s more a matter of confidence than anything else. He needs more reps and that will help improve his confidence. In the meanwhile, his improving jumper allowed him to become a much better scorer. As a result he averaged 15.3 ppg in February and brought his scoring average for the season to double digits.

What he needs to do is to keep working on that jumper so it becomes automatic when he’s left alone. This will open the dribble penetration, which usually results in a dunk or a foul. The only thing he should avoid is falling in love with his jumper, cause I still want to see him dunking the ball everytime he can. If he keeps working on his game and he gets around 35 min/game he could average 15 points and 8.5 rebounds with a couple of assists, a steal and around 2 blocks per game. Usually players take a big jump in their 3rd season, but considering Tyrus has been playing few minutes in his first 2 seasons, he might make the jump in his 4th season. And if he does, his numbers could be even better than those.

Player analysis Tyrus Thomas

So the Thunder beat the Grizzlies with Thabo replacing Durant (out with an ankle sprain) in the starting line-up. Big deal, right ?  Every dog has his day. And the Grizzlies suck anyway. Well, now the Thunder won their second in a row with Thabo in the starting line-up, this time missing not just their best player but also their 2nd best player (or 3rd, depends on how you rank Green and Westbrook). Thabo’s stats weren’t impressive, but were  good (15 points on 6-11 FG, 7 reb, 2 ast, 1 blk, 1 TO). What’s more important is that the win came on the court of a team that already has more than twice as many wins and is fighting for the playoffs – Dallas is now 8th with Phoenix right behind them. They should be pretty motivated at this point of the season, which makes the Thunder’s win even more impressive.

Of course this doesn’t mean Thabo is a star, but what it shows is that he’s a quality player that can be a serviceable back-up and can even produce as a starter if needed . Yet somehow there wasn’t enough room for him on the roster of the Bulls. Did I mention that he’s paid like 10 times less than Hinrich and he can play multiple positions ? Well, he is and he does.

General managers, Player analysis John Paxson, Oklahoma City Thunder, Thabo Sefolosha

At the trade deadline Paxson solved the logjam in the backcourt created by the arrival of Salmons by trading away Thabo Sefolosha instead of getting rid of his beloved Hinrich. I complained about it at the time.

Sam Presti seemed to see what Paxson could not, so the Thunder got Sefolosha and he started getting minutes. So far the results are not bad. 2 games ago Thabo had 12 points on 5-9 FG and 8 rebounds in a close loss at Dallas, and in his last game he got the starting job replacing the injured Durant. The result: 15 points on 5-13 FG to go with 11 reb, 3 ast, 2 stl, 1 blk and 3 TO, and a W at Memphis.

One wonders how many Bulls players will end up flourishing on other teams just as soon as they get traded. First was Chandler, but there was the excuse that he’s playing with Chris Paul, and on the Bulls he’d have no one to get him the ball like that. Then Duhon explodes in New York. He’s averaging 12.2 ppg and almost 8 ast while shooting over 40% from the 3p line while in Chicago opposing players dared him to shoot the 3. But he plays for D’Antoni, who’s system is known for inflating everyone’s stats (although I doubt his system teaches you how to shoot 3s). And now it looks like Thabo Sefolosha is on the same path.

Meanwhile the Bulls have “enjoyed” a “magnificent” display of basketball from Hinrich, who’s been averaging 7.6 points on 42.5% FG, 1.3 rebounds and 3.6 ast over the last 6 games. And he’s been doing it while being paid just a little over 8 million more than Thabo is. A real bargain I’d say. But then, you can’t really put a price on love, can you ? And John MacBeth Paxson loves him some Kirk.

General managers, Player analysis John Paxson, Thabo Sefolosha

John Wayne was born Marion Robert Morrison. Well, Shawn Marion must have been born John Whine. He wasn’t happy in Phoenix despite playing on an elite team with one of the most unselfish players of all time AND being the highest paid player on the team. Now it turns out he wasn’t happy in Miami either:

The game is supposed to be exciting. I’m tired of playing that boring style in the half court, watching everybody just go up and run plays, call this play. That’s boring. The fans don’t enjoy it either. People like to see you get up and down, have high-scoring games and dunks and all that stuff. That’s what it’s about.

So you don’t like playing half-court basketball and you’d rather play up-tempo, like, say, the Phoenix Suns used to play. Then maybe you shouldn’t have asked for a fuckin trade in the first place, you dumb fuck.

I really hope his stupid ass isn’t offered more than the MLE this offseason so he learns his place. He wasn’t worth the fat contract he got before and now he won’t be worth much more than the MLE anyway. If he gets anything close to 50 million for 5 years he’ll be an expiring waiting to happen. If he gets more than 10 million per season for more than 3 seasons, that’s going into Ben Wallace territory. This summer we’ll see if Bryan Colangelo is any better than John Paxson when it comes to falling in love with his own players.

Player analysis Shawn Marion

Bill Simmons column about Durant being underrated got me thinking about players who are trully underrated. And while Durant at least got some consideration for the All Star Game and some considered him being left out as a snub, there’s a guy who despite having the numbers wasn’t even in the discussion.

Stephen Jackson’s stats look pretty good. In fact they are comparable to the stats of players selected for the All Star Game as shown in the table above. True, he plays 40 minutes per game at a really fast pace to get those stats, his shooting percentage is lousy and his turnovers are off the charts, but he plays a unique role on that team. He’s the best defender – which might not mean much on the Warriors, he can defend 3 or maybe 4 positions and he’s the only play maker on a team filled with shooting guards.

Out of the entire Warriors’ roster Stephen Jackson is the only one with a championship ring, he’s been putting up pretty good stats for 4-5 seasons already, he’s been a great part of the Warriors magic ride in the 2007 playoffs, yet he’s not getting much credit for his good play.

The truth is there are some things working against him. He’s perceived as a head-case since his days in Indiana. The brawl and then shooting his gun in the street didn’t really help his image, but he has been trouble free since moving to the Warriors. This season the Warriors record is horrible and he missed a few games with a wrist injury and played poorly in a few others. His PER is a mere 15.12. So while it’s reasonable to argue that there were more deserving players than Jackson to select for the All Star Game, it seems unfair that his name was not even mentioned.

It also seems to be the case that his reputation for being a head-case is stopping some GMs from seeing him for what he is: a very serviceable and versatile player on a decent (albeit long) contract, that might be the missing piece for a team. For example if the Rockets finally decide they should trade McGrady, they should offer McGrady and maybe Scola to the Warriors for Jackson, Maggette and Turiaf. At the very least Jackson would play more games than McGrady and he’s already been past the second round of the playoffs.

And the last reason to call Jackson underrated: he fits the 3 criteria of Bill Simmons. Achieving at a crazy high level: crazy – check, high level – check. Has to resonate in a unique way with his fans: the atmosphere at the Orlace Arena during the Warriors’ upset of the Mavs was amazing, and Jackson (alongside Baron Davis) was the heart and soul of that team. He needs to make you think “I bet that dude would be really fun to follow on an everyday basis”: he does, as the Warriors remain one of the most entertaining teams of the league.

Player analysis

Now I know how Ric Bucher must have felt after guaranteeing that Kobe won’t play another game in a Lakers uniform only to watch him return to the Lakers and reach the finals.

After guaranteeing that Marion, Brand and pretty much everyone else except for Arenas and Maggette will NOT opt-out, Elton Brand and – surprise, surprise – Baron Davis decide to actually opt-out of their rich contracts. I gotta say that stings a little bit.

The question is why did they do this ? Why now ? Next summer a lot more teams (Hawks, Cavs, Warriors, Clippers, perhaps even the Lakers, Grizzlies, Heat, Wolves, Sixers, Sonics, Raptors) might have some or even lots of cap space. This summer is a buyer’s season. Unrestricted FA won’t find too many teams with cap space willing to go into a bidding war. Their best chance remains to either sign with their teams or force a S&T, but that is more complicated to do.

“It preserves options to make the team better,” Falk said. “Clearly, if Elton decided he wanted to simply max out the dollars, he would have stayed in the deal, had a monster year, and a lot more teams will have cap room next year.”

I guess Elton Brand is trying to have his cake and eat it too by not really losing money while forcing the Clippers to make some moves to become better. He clearly wasn’t paying attention in history class, cause if he was, he’d know that a) the Clippers suck; they always have and always will and b) if you want to play for a winner, you don’t opt-out, you ask for a trade; if necessary, you do it through the media. It worked for Kobe, it worked for McGrady, it worked for Garnett – even though technically Garnett didn’t ask for a trade, I think McHale finally traded him when he started fearing for his life after watching Garnett in the eyes at the end of the 3rd consecutive season in which the Wolves missed the playoffs.

Now that Elton Brand has opted-out, wouldn’t the Wizards have been better off not signing Jamison yet and offering him in a S&T for Brand ? I know Arenas said he wants Jamison back, but Elton Brand is much better than Jamison and his game would have fit the Wizards better, giving them an inside weapon and opening things up for Arenas’ 3p shot. Brand would have also helped their defense a lot.

Brand’s best option to win probably remains Miami. A post on TrueHoop suggested a trade (S&T Brand for Beasley, Haslem, Banks) to get Brand in Miami, but I think that would be too much from Miami’s point of view. Brand for Beasley, Banks and Blount would probably be enough for the Clippers. They are the Clippers after all. The Clippers would have to eat the bad contracts of Blount and Banks, but they need a PG anyway, and next summer Blount becomes an expiring. The main thing, though, is that they’d get a young stud back (some might say with superstar potential), who’ll be playing for cheap for the next 4 years. And Sterling likes cheap.

For the Heat this would turn them into contenders. Marion will be playing for a contract so he’ll be on his best behavior while busting his ass on the court, especially on D, Wade and Brand will open things up for each other and give opposing Ds fits. Haslem could be a nice 6th man. And we can figure the Heat will manage to round out their roster with veterans looking for a ring, just like Boston did last summer. For example Adonal Foyle would be a good pick-up as a defensive center, allowing the Heat not to play Zo that much. James Jones could be am option as a 3p shooter to spread the floor. And so on.

As for Baron Davis, despite being the same age as Elton Brand, and perhaps just as good, he was considered far less likely to opt-out because he might not draw the same interest as Brand and because he had to leave more money on the table. The reason Baron Davis might not draw the same interest is because he’s considered injury prone (after playing all 82 games in his first 3 years, he averaged 56 games for 5 seasons, before playing again all 82 games last season, compared to Elton Brand who averaged 76 games per season for his career), and as a general principle big men are more valued than guards.

Some reports claim he’s not getting along with Nellie, but Davis insists he wants to remain with the Warriors. In this case, I can only assume he must have figured out that after having a career year he was highly unlikely to repeat this performance, so he’d better milk it as much as he could. There really is no other explanation I can think of if he really wants to stay with the Warriors and he’s not pushing them to make moves to get better, like Elton Brand is trying to do with the Clippers.

Player analysis Baron Davis, Elton Brand, LA Clippers, Miami Heat

All the comparisons stop right here. It’s over. Not that it ever was that close anyway. Kobe Bryant is NOT the next Michael Jordan. He’s not better than Michael Jordan. He’s not as good as Michael Jordan. In fact, he’s nowhere close to being as good as Jordan was.

And if the staggering amount of statistical data was not enough, Kobe’s choke job in these finals, combined with the lose gun job from 2004 have shown that he is not able to dominate the game and impose his will on the outcome the way Jordan did. At least not when it really matters – on the big stage: Jordan played in 6 finals and got 6 titles and 6 finals MVPs. So far Kobe played 5 finals, won 3 (as the side kick) and lost 2 (1 as the man) and got no finals MVP. So until Kobe proves himself in at least a couple of finals, this conversation is over.

Player analysis Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan